Predicting the Status of the New Strain of Coronavirus, Omicron, in Iran for the Next 4 Months

Document Type : Editorial

Authors

1 Gastroenterology and Hepatology Diseases Research Center, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran.

2 Basic and Molecular Epidemiology of Gastrointestinal Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

3 Neuroscience Research Center, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran.

4 Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Cente

Abstract

On 26 November 2021, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced variant B.1.1.529, a variant of concern named Omicron. In this study, we used a susceptible, exposure, infection, and compartmental recovery model (SEIR) to estimate the future status of the omicron virus in Iran.   We showed that the epidemic could last for about 3 to 4 months in Iran. It seems that by increasing the effectiveness of interventions, the Omicron wave could be under control with more minor casualties. The response strategy in Iran should be implemented to gain time for the roll-out of the third vaccine dose and complete those who just received the first shot. Besides, the effectiveness of interventions in the real world almost occurs more slowly than the simulated data.

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